Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
North America 82.9%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
81
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+0.2 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado3 ene 24, 14:03 UTC31 dic 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
0.1%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
This question is copy of the other question where the options are dependent on each other.
- In case company will be multinational, place of their HQ will be considered.
- If it will be research program or joint venture by multiple companies the majority state will be considered.
- Feel free to add other continents if you feel so.
- Criteria to be used for AGI will be the same as the one in the long bet: https://longbets.org/1/
- Duration will be extended as needed.
Mercados abiertos
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volumen total
- 241,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 128 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 349,4 mil €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
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- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de A company from which continent will achieve AGI first??
- Manifold Markets cotiza North America al 83% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve A company from which continent will achieve AGI first??
- Está previsto que A company from which continent will achieve AGI first? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida A company from which continent will achieve AGI first??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This question is copy of the other question where the options are dependent on each other.