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  1. Mercados de Predicción
  2. Elección
  3. Next government of the United Kingdom?
Next government of the United Kingdom?

Next government of the United Kingdom?

ElecciónPolíticaEuropeOne-OffUS PoliticsChessDeportes3a
KalshiKalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisión
Probabilidad implícita actual
Reform UK majority
Reform UK majority 15%
Líder entre 19 opciones
Calidad del mercado

24 / 100

Baja calidad
Volumen 24h

0 €

Liquidez

8,5 €

Baja liquidez
Compra / Venta

8.6% / 15.0%

Spread

74.4%

Spread amplio
Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 7 minutos

21 may 26, 14:001 ene 30, 15:00

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

Reform UK majority15%

Reglas

If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
  • This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
  • Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
  • Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
  • A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).

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3,6 €
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2,5 €
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Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

14,6 €
Naftali Bennett: 30%KalshiKALSHI
What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

28,1 €
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France United Left Primary Winner

France United Left Primary Winner

2,5 mil €
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Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

638,1 €
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Activos en estos temas

BitcoinBTC$62,963.68+2.52%SolanaSOL$65.35+1.78%EthereumETH$1,660.88+1.86%DogecoinDOGE$0.0851+1.60%XRPXRP$1.12+0.59%BNBBNB$597.16+1.90%

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Reglas

If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
  • This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
  • Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
  • Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
  • A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).