KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosSin cotizaciones en vivo
Datos del 10 sept 2026, 19:40 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Probabilidad implícita actual
Reform UK minority + Conservative support 15%Líder entre 19 opciones
Calidad del mercado
42 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
1,8 mil €
Baja liquidezSpread
4.9 pt
Spread moderadoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 minutos
21 may 26, 14:00 UTC1 ene 30, 15:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiReglas
If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
- This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
- Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
- Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
- A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Next government of the United Kingdom??
- Kalshi cotiza Reform UK minority + Conservative support al 15% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Next government of the United Kingdom??
- Está previsto que Next government of the United Kingdom? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Next government of the United Kingdom??
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
