KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
Claude 74%Líder entre 9 opcionesAjustado por margen: las cotizaciones brutas sumaban más del 100% y se normalizaron.
Calidad del mercado
73 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
10,4 mil €
Liquidez
19,6 mil €
Liquidez mediaSpread
2.0 pt
Spread estrechoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 minutos
31 ago 26, 17:3030 sept 26, 14:00
Tendencias
Reglas
If Claude is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:LMArena Code
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If Qwen is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Mercados abiertos
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- October 31+0.9pt100%
- September 30+0.9pt100%
- September 15+1.1pt99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 593,1 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-5.1pt58.3%
- ChatGPT+7.0pt24.1%
- Grok+1.0pt7.4%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 8,8 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+14.9pt20.6%
- September 5+14.9pt15.7%
- September 6+13.2pt13.7%
+27 resultados más
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+5.8pt100%
- November 30,+3.7pt100%
- December 31,+3.7pt100%
+10 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-13.0pt71.2%
- ChatGPT+8.0pt20.2%
- Gemini2.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 159,7 mil €
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Which companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- AI capability growth this year?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- When will any company achieve AGI?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai)?
- Kalshi cotiza Claude al 74% a fecha de 4 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai)?
- Está previsto que Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai) se resuelva el 30 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai)?
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If Claude is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.