KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
Democrats, 8+ pts 61%Líder entre 7 opciones
Calidad del mercado
26 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
21,5 €
Baja liquidezSpread
9.2 pt
Spread amplioDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 minutos
14 sept 26, 19:00 UTC3 nov 27, 14:00 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Michigan by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:Michigan Board of State Canvassers
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
Mercados abiertos
Politics
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.1pt60.4%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt38.6%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt1%
+16 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 133,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 947,3 mil €
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.3pt13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 resultados más
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt59.8%
- D-House, R-Senate29.4%
- Republicans sweep+0.4pt9.8%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 194,6 M €
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-6.0pt56.4%
- Nithya Raman+7.0pt43.6%
- Volumen total
- 28,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 523,8 mil €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.2pt90.1%
- Republican Party+0.4pt9.9%
- Volumen total
- 30,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 493,5 mil €
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Next French Presidential Election
- Ohio Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 22, 2026?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Kansas Senate winner?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Michigan Governor margin of victory?
- Kalshi cotiza Democrats, 8+ pts al 61% a fecha de 22 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Michigan Governor margin of victory?
- Está previsto que Michigan Governor margin of victory se resuelva el 3 de noviembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Michigan Governor margin of victory?
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Michigan by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- ¿Dónde más está listado Michigan Governor margin of victory?
- La misma pregunta también está listada en Polymarket.