KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aproximadaProbabilidad implícita actualBefore September 1, 2026 5%-1.2ptLíder entre 4 opciones
Calidad del mercado
72 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
721,9 €
Liquidez
256,3 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
1.0% / 2.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread estrechoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 minutos
12 may 26, 20:001 ago 26, 14:00
Tendencias
0%
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Before August 1, 20262%
Comparar plataformas· Before September 1, 2026
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiEsta páginaMejor en general | Media | 5% | — | 721,9 € | 256,3 mil € | hace 17 minutos | |
 Polymarket80% de coincidencia · verificado | Media | 30% | — | 569,4 € | 14,8 mil € | hace 17 minutos | Abrir → |
También disponible en Polymarket
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by which date?
0.5 ptsCerrados
-0.5pt30%
-0.2pt0%
0%
62 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad
Volumen total1,8 M €
Volumen 24h569,4 €
POLYMARKETReglas
If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
- If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death).
- If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
- Clarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba.
- For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Tendencia de volumen
$8222 jul26d de datos27 jul
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If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
- If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death).
- If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
- Clarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba.
- For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.