Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
6.0% (24h)One-OffPolíticaElecciónLatin America1a
KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónProbabilidad implícita actualLula da Silva, 5-10% 15%-6.0%Líder entre 11 opciones
Calidad del mercado
28 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
0 €
Liquidez
6,3 €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
15.0% / 22.0%
Spread
46.7%
Spread amplioDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 minutos
23 abr 26, 4:004 oct 27, 14:00
Tendencias
0%
0%
Resultado elegido
Lula da Silva, 5-10%15%
También disponible en Polymarket
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
5.2%3m
-2.5%34%
+3.5%32%
-2.0%11%
+8 resultados más
64 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad
Volumen total207,1 mil €
Volumen 24h257,2 €
POLYMARKETReglas
If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Lula da Silva minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- For raw votes: the total votes received by Lula da Silva minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Lula da Silva minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Lula da Silva wins, or the electoral votes received by Lula da Silva minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Lula da Silva does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
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If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Lula da Silva minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- For raw votes: the total votes received by Lula da Silva minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Lula da Silva minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Lula da Silva wins, or the electoral votes received by Lula da Silva minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Lula da Silva does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.