Probabilidad implícita actual
CDU 32%Líder entre 7 opciones
Calidad del mercado
24 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
0 €
Liquidez
4,8 €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
29.0% / 35.0%
Spread
20.7%
Spread amplioDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 minuto
17 may 26, 14:0020 sept 27, 14:00
Tendencias
Resultado elegido
CDU32%
También disponible en Polymarket
Berlin State Election Winner
1.0%3m
+1.0%30%
+1.5%22%
+0.1%22%
+21 resultados más
80 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad
Volumen total2,3 M €
Volumen 24h4,2 mil €
POLYMARKETReglas
If CDU wins the 2026 Berlin state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
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If CDU wins the 2026 Berlin state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.