KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aproximadaProbabilidad implícita actualAt least 4bps 79%Líder entre 10 opciones
Calidad del mercado
24 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
0 €
Liquidez
786 €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
74.0% / 80.0%
Spread
8.1%
Spread amplioDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 minutos
21 jun 26, 14:0029 jul 26, 20:14
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
At least 4bps79%
Tendencia de volumen
$348 jul11d de datos25 jul
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
80 €4.0%: 100%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
7,4 €4.5%: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
1,6 €2.6-2.8%: 23%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?
0 €Sí: 6%KALSHI
KALSHI
Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
0 €Exactly 1.50%: 0%KALSHI
KALSHI
30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028
0 €Sí: 30%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActivos en estos temas
Noticias Relacionadas
Hong Kong to Reopen RMB Bonds with Tender on July 23, 2026Blockchain.News
Polymarket odds put July Fed no-change at 96% as $65M tradesBlockchain.News
Polymarket odds: Fed July hold jumps to 95% after Bitcoin breaks $65KBlockchain.News
Bitcoin climbs above $65K as weak PPI rattles Fed hawksCrypto NewsPolymarket odds tilt to Sept Fed hold at 61.5% after Warsh testimonyBlockchain.NewsPolymarket odds for 2026 Fed hike fall to 52.5% as traders trim betsBlockchain.NewsReglas
If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 4bps, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Market Yield on U.S.
- Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis.” H.15 is normally posted at 4:15 PM ET each business day.
- The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 value - July 28, 2026 value| × 100.
- For example, a move from 4.05% to 4.17% equals 12 basis points.
- If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 6bps, then the market resolves to Yes.