FutuurComprobar disponibilidadDatos de resolución verificadosAviso de calidad de datosSin cotizaciones en vivo
Datos del 27 oct 2026, 7:04 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Probabilidad implícita actual
December 31 11%
December 31 11%Calidad del mercado
23 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
315,5 €
Baja liquidezTraders
11
Comentarios
0
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 minutos
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
US Strike on Mexico by EOY2026?
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Manifold MarketsReglas
This event concerns whether the United States conducts a military strike against legitimate targets inside the territory, airspace, or territorial waters of Mexico between this event’s creation date and the deadline specified in the title (the “Event Period”).
- A qualifying “US strike on Mexico” means kinetic military action by U.S. armed forces (e.g., air, missile, naval or ground strikes) that hits targets in Mexican territory, airspace, or territorial waters, authorized and conducted by the U.S. government as a military action.
- For the purposes of this market, the following clearly do not qualify as “US strikes”:
- Border incidents involving law enforcement or security forces without U.S. military authorization; Cooperative joint operations with Mexican forces; Counter-drug interdictions by U.S. agencies without formal military command involvement; Accidental or collateral exchanges of fire at or near the border where no official U.S. military operation is declared; Any action not officially described by the U.S. government as a military strike.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is an official public statement or document confirming such a strike from either (i) the U.S. Department of Defense, (ii) the White House (including the President or official spokespersons), or (iii) the U.S. Department of War equivalent authority.
- If a qualifying U.S. military strike on Mexico is confirmed by the PDS during the Event Period, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
- También disponible en Polymarket — US strike on Mexico by...? · December 31 4%
