Mercados de Manifold Markets resueltos en 2025

Mercados de predicción de Manifold Markets que se liquidaron durante 2025, los más recientes primero, con el resultado ganador de cada uno.

125 mercados resueltos

• Will a Kimi reasoning model top LMArena by EOY2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 31 dic 2025

• Will Anthony Albanese be a popular prime minister at the end of 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 31 dic 2025

• BTC Puzzle 71 solved in 2025

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 31 dic 2025

• Will the academic level of the average French student rise by 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 31 dic 2025

• Will Riley+Tundar beat Ice+Marcus?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 30 dic 2025

• Will Spinn+Shogun beat Tundar+Meph

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 29 dic 2025

• New Melee major winner in 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 29 dic 2025

• test

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 27 dic 2025

• I will become fluent in toki pona by the end of 2025

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 22 dic 2025

• Who will win Antisemite of the Year 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Tucker Carlson · Resuelto el 21 dic 2025

• 5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 15 dic 2025

• ¿Partido ganador de la elección a la alcaldia de Comayagua en 2025?/ Winning party of Comayagua's 2025 mayoral election?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Partido Liberal · Resuelto el 13 dic 2025

• ¿Partido ganador de la elección a la alcaldia de Choluteca en 2025?/ Winning party of Choluteca's 2025 mayoral election?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Partido Nacional · Resuelto el 13 dic 2025

• Greenland becomes a US state by December 31st 2025

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 10 dic 2025

• CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Dec 1, 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 9 dic 2025

• WW3 starts before GTA 6?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 9 dic 2025

• ARC-AGI-2 prize winning score >=50% in 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 5 dic 2025

• Who will win the Zilo vs Aimbot debate? https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1174825167197843466/1444409185088438425/i

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Zilo · Resuelto el 3 dic 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of November 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Google · Resuelto el 1 dic 2025

• Who will win the Aimbot - Zilo debate?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Zilo · Resuelto el 30 nov 2025

• Who will win Game of the Year 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 · Resuelto el 25 nov 2025

• GOOGL stock price higher than GOOG by 1/1/2026?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 24 nov 2025

• Which team will win the 2025 NCAA D1 Women's Cross Country Championship?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: NC State · Resuelto el 22 nov 2025

• Which team will win the 2025 NCAA D1 Men's Cross Country Championship?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Oklahoma State · Resuelto el 22 nov 2025

• Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 19 nov 2025

• Will Gemini 3.0 Pro outperform Gemini 2.5 Pro on the LMArena (Without Style Control)

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 18 nov 2025

• Will Claude AI experience no partial or major outage in the next 7 days, according to its official status page?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 18 nov 2025

• How many nights will Sarkozy spend in jail?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: 7 - 29 nights (<1 month) · Resuelto el 10 nov 2025

• Will anyone get a perfect score at BMT 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 9 nov 2025

• Will Devin win OHMIO?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 9 nov 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of October 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Google · Resuelto el 3 nov 2025

• Trump approval rating 43.1% or higher on November 1st?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 2 nov 2025

• An attempt to fix the "Will this close above 50%" market. (READ DESCRIPTION)

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 1 nov 2025

• ¿Quien va a ganar la mesa de hoy?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Chamz · Resuelto el 30 oct 2025

• Will Coco venture out from under the furniture

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 21 oct 2025

• Lucas farà la tripletta pre partenza?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 16 oct 2025

• X.AI releases a Grok-powered code editor before October 16, 2025

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 15 oct 2025

• Tesla reports >465,800 vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 12 oct 2025

• David moves back to the Bay by October?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 5 oct 2025

• DingDingDing Casino announces a plan to resume operations by June 30, 2025

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 2 oct 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of September 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Google · Resuelto el 1 oct 2025

• [MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 1 oct 2025

• Will Smiling Friends be renewed for a 4th season by Adult Swim by the end of 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 29 sept 2025

• Boca win the libertadores 2026?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 26 sept 2025

• Will Substack launch an ad network in 2024?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 18 sept 2025

• Will Nippon Steel’s deal to acquire U.S. Steel gain all required regulatory approvals?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 16 sept 2025

• Kid heaves his lunch this week?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 14 sept 2025

• Will macOS 16 drop support for intel based Mac’s?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 10 sept 2025

• Will I fully clean my room before next Monday

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 9 sept 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of August 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Google · Resuelto el 1 sept 2025

• Which team will win the 2025 LIV Golf Team Championship?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Legion XIII · Resuelto el 24 ago 2025

• Will Putin visit the USA in 2025

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 16 ago 2025

• Will I get a job in 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 8 ago 2025

• Will Trump broadly maintain the January 2025 AI diffusion export controls?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 2 ago 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of July 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Google · Resuelto el 1 ago 2025

• [40k liquidity] 2025 Tour de France Winner?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Tadej Pogacar · Resuelto el 27 jul 2025

• Will PornHub in the UK require age verification by 25th July 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 25 jul 2025

• Gwern reveals the true meaning of Evangelion by December 31, 2025

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 24 jul 2025

• Kimi K2 rank 5 or better on LMArena?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 17 jul 2025

• Will 2 or more US banks fail in 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 16 jul 2025

• Will an open-source LLM under 10B parameters surpass Claude 3.5 Haiku by EOY 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 16 jul 2025

• GOLD (XAU/USD) closes above $3,330 this week?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 12 jul 2025

• Sanji dies in a fight?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 9 jul 2025

• In what month of year 2025 perl 5.42.0 will be released

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: 07 · Resuelto el 4 jul 2025

• Will I have a convincing video call with a fully synthetic AI avatar before July 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 3 jul 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of June 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Google · Resuelto el 1 jul 2025

• Will PornHub in the UK require age verification by July 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 1 jul 2025

• Does this pumpkin drink vodka?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 30 jun 2025

• When will Elon Musk no longer play a significant role in the Trump Administration?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: 2025 · Resuelto el 30 jun 2025

• Will A.I. Have Significantly More Common Sense by end of 2024?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 29 jun 2025

• Are there more locks than keys in the world?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 27 jun 2025

• Will I make both USApHO and the FIDE IM title before the summer of 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 26 jun 2025

• Will I learn to orient using cardinal directions?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 19 jun 2025

• Will OpenAI release o3 pro mode this month?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 12 jun 2025

• During which month will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: June · Resuelto el 9 jun 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of May 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Google · Resuelto el 1 jun 2025

• Which actor will play the Sixteenth Doctor Who?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Billie Piper · Resuelto el 1 jun 2025

• Are there more chairs than tables?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 20 may 2025

• Tits or Ass ?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Ass · Resuelto el 12 may 2025

• Will I stick to my finals study routine from May 3 to May 11?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 9 may 2025

• Who won HMIC 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: jatloe · Resuelto el 4 may 2025

• Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Mark Carney · Resuelto el 4 may 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of April 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Google · Resuelto el 1 may 2025

• Who will win the ACF Nationals Collegiate Quizbowl Championship 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Stanford · Resuelto el 20 abr 2025

• Will Mark Carney defeat Pierre Poilievre in the upcoming debates [based on odds change on Polymarket]?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 18 abr 2025

• When will Ksenia Karelina get out of prison?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: 2025 · Resuelto el 10 abr 2025

• My current relationship lasts >6 months (Oct 7th - April 7th)

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 7 abr 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of March 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Google · Resuelto el 1 abr 2025

• Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 29 mar 2025

• will i win indiana mathcounts state comp

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 23 mar 2025

• will proof team top 11 at mathcounts state

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 22 mar 2025

• Will any head of state/government publicly mention the Effective Altruism movement in 2024?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 22 feb 2025

• Will there be a new (and smart) anonymous model on lmarena on February 21st?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 22 feb 2025

• On which of these three dating sites will I find true love*?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Hinge · Resuelto el 20 feb 2025

• Who will win melee singles at GENESIS X2?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Hungrybox 🍽️ · Resuelto el 17 feb 2025

• deleted

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 9 feb 2025

• How many of Trump’s nominees to head government agencies will be publicly accused of sex crimes by Inauguration Day?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: 3 · Resuelto el 20 ene 2025

• Will 1 or more US banks fail in 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 19 ene 2025

• Will a production car achieve 0-60 mph in less than a second in 2024 or earlier?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 16 ene 2025

• La NASA confirmera t’elle la découverte extraterrestre avant 2025 ?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 10 ene 2025

• By 2025 will I firmly believe that one of the 2023 balloon shootdowns was staged by the Biden administration for PR purposes?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 4 ene 2025

• resolver

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: Yes · Resuelto el 3 ene 2025

• Gaat Frans Timmermans in 2024 de tweede kamer verlaten?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 3 ene 2025

• Will McDonald's open a location in Yerevan, Armenia in 2024?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 3 ene 2025

• Will Jstlk become an anti-fan in 2024

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 3 ene 2025

• On balance, has bitcoin resulted in more bad than good in the world?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 2 ene 2025

• Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 2 ene 2025

• Will an artificial agent ascend in NetHack (version 3.6.6 or later) before the end of 2024?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 1 ene 2025

• Will there be a new major longtermist funder before the end of 2024?

  Manifold Markets · Ganador: No · Resuelto el 1 ene 2025