Will there be a new major longtermist funder before the end of 2024?
One-OffManifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: No (89.5%)
Resuelto: 1 ene 2025, 16:46
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Aviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradadosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 15 oct 2026, 13:55 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Cronología de Probabilidad
Yes10.5%
No89.5%
Ganada
Perdida
Reglas
Will a donor who is not currently widely known give ≥$50 million to longtermist or existential risk causes or organizations before the end of 2024, and be expected to continue giving ≥$50 million per year?
- I will only count donations or grants, not impact investments.
- I will count something as a longtermist if it seems like the kind of thing the Long-Term Future Fund or Open Phil's longtermist budget might plausibly fund.
- I will resolve this question at my discretion in whichever way seems most correct to me.
- I may trade in this market, but promise to carefully make sure not to let my position affect the way I resolve this market.