PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Spain 56%+34.6%Leader of 60 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$21.6M
Liquidity
$3.1M
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.7% / 1.3%
Spread
85.7%
Wide spread7d Change
-31.8%
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jul 2, 25, 10:26 PMJul 20, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Spain56%
Compare venues· Spain
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall100% match · verified | High | 52% | 0pt | $11.2M | $845.8M | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
 Rothera92% match · auto | High | 21% | -31pt | $1.9M | $41.8M | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis pageMost active | Medium | 56% | +4pt | $21.6M | $3.1M | 1 minute ago | |
 Limitless100% match · verified | Low | 51% | -1pt | $1.1K | $0 | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
 Myriad84% match · auto | Low | 16% | -36pt | $0 | $0 | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets74% match · verified | — | 51% | -1pt | — | — | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets80% match · linked | — | 52% | 0pt | — | — | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets90% match · linked | — | 52% | 0pt | — | — | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets90% match · linked | — | 51% | -1pt | — | — | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets90% match · linked | — | 50% | -2pt | — | — | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets82% match · linked | — | 50% | -2pt | — | — | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets96% match · auto | — | 16% | -36pt | — | — | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
35.7%2y
+31.3%52%
+2.3%24%
+2.2%20%
+45 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.2B
24h Vol$11.2M
KALSHIAlso available on Limitless
World Cup Winner
3mo
51.3%
25%
19.9%
+1 more outcomes
40 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$61.8K
24h Vol$1.1K
LIMITLESSAlso available on Manifold Markets
World Cup Winner
4d
38.1%
24.7%
21.1%
+1 more outcomes
Community forecast8 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Rothera
World Cup 2026: Winner
6d
42%
23%
21%
+1 more outcomes
77 • High qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.9M
24h Vol$1.9M
ROTHERAAlso available on Manifold Markets
World cup 2026 winner
5d
+21.1%50.2%
+2.1%20.8%
+1.5%18.9%
+6 more outcomes
Community forecast22 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Which country will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5d
+28.8%51.4%
+3.2%22.8%
+2.9%20.1%
+38 more outcomes
Community forecast130 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5d
+28.1%52%
+2.5%23%
+1.8%20%
+45 more outcomes
Community forecast139 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Myriad
2026 World Cup Winner
47647.8%4d
+476.5%47.6%
+1.4%15.6%
+1.0%15.3%
+17 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
MYRIADAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup?
4d
+21.1%49.5%
+1.7%20%
+1.6%18.6%
+14 more outcomes
Community forecast61 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Which Team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5d
+29.0%51.9%
+3.3%22.3%
+2.9%19.3%
+40 more outcomes
Community forecast178 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
2026 FIFA World Cup ⚽ | 🏆 Winner
5d
+32.4%51.1%
+3.1%23%
+2.4%20.1%
+47 more outcomes
Community forecast873 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
- If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
- If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
- The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.1k99.0%KALSHIFrance — No4m ago
KALSHIFrance — No4m ago$1.5k98.9%KALSHIFrance — No5m ago
KALSHIFrance — No5m ago$5.9k98.8%KALSHIFrance — No5m ago
KALSHIFrance — No5m ago$8.8k98.8%KALSHIFrance — No5m ago
KALSHIFrance — No5m ago$1.4k98.5%KALSHIFrance — No8m ago
KALSHIFrance — No8m ago$1.6k98.7%KALSHIFrance — No8m ago
KALSHIFrance — No8m ago$1.2k98.9%KALSHIFrance — No9m ago
KALSHIFrance — No9m ago$6.8k98.9%KALSHIFrance — No9m ago
KALSHIFrance — No9m agoVolume trend
$16.0MJul 213d of dataJul 14
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This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
- If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
- If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
- The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.