PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes
Resolved: Aug 13, 2026, 8:17 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
8%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 13, 2026, 8:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Yes 100%+90.8pt
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
99.6% / 100.0%
Spread
0.4 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+51.8 pts
Market data
Updated 7 days ago
StaleJul 24, 26, 4:36 PMAug 12, 26, 11:59 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Reykjavík Airport (stationID:BIRK) METAR observation at 18:00 UTC on August 12, 2026 reports a Cloud Coverage Level 1 (skyc1) value of SKC, CLR, FEW, or SCT.
- This market will resolve to "No" if that observation reports BKN, OVC, or VV, or is missing after applying the rules listed below.
- If the 18:00 UTC BIRK observation is missing or not reported within 24 hours, the 17:00 UTC BIRK observation will be used instead or, if it is also missing, the 19:00 UTC BIRK observation will be used.
- If both are missing, this market will resolve based on Keflavík International Airport's (stationID:BIKF) observations using the same time hierarchy.
- The primary resolution source is the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) ASOS archive (mesonet.agron.iastate.edu), routine hourly reports only, skyc1 field.
- The raw METAR text of the qualifying observation governs in the event of any discrepancy in the parsed CSV field.
