Will Artemis or Starship reach space first?
Tech
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Artemis
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Current implied probability
Artemis 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 122 days ago
StaleOct 18, 22, 12:00 AMDec 31, 23, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Artemis100%
Starship0%
100%
0%
Rules
This is a market on which launch will be successfully completed first: NASA's Artemis or SpaceX's Starship.
- If NASA's Artemis completes a successful launch before SpaceX's Starship, this market will resolve to "Artemis".
- If SpaceX's Starship completes a successful launch before NASA's Artemis, this market will resolve to "Starship".
- This market may resolve as soon as one of the mentioned launches is successfully completed.
- If neither launch is successfully completed by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
- A successful launch will mean that either mission takes off from its launchpad and successfully reaches the Karman Line, an altitude of at least 100 Kilometers (~62 miles) above sea level.
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Aug 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $77,250 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
- $76,000 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Aug 28, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $70,000 or above+2.0pt98%
- $72,000 or above+2.0pt98%
- $71,000 or above+8.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBitcoin price at the end of 2026
- 80,000 to 84,999.99+1.0pt11.1%
- 75,000 to 79,999.99-1.0pt10.2%
- 70,000 to 74,999.99-1.1pt8.3%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Aug 25, 2026?
- 85° to 86°+44.0pt59.6%
- 83° to 84°-11.0pt24%
- 87° to 88°+8.0pt12.5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets August 24 - August 26, 2026?
- 65-89+17.0pt45.5%
- 40-64+4.0pt43.6%
- 90-114-3.0pt8.9%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIETH price on Aug 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $2,290 or above99%
- $2,330 or above99%
- $2,410 or above95%
+37 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $150.6K
- 24h Vol
- $150.6K
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Where will it rain on Aug 25, 2026?
- Which company does Ox Alpha belong to?
- BTC price range on Aug 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Meta (META) Up or Down - Daily
- NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - Daily
- How many launches will SpaceX have in August?
- Elon Musk # tweets August 25 - September 1, 2026?
- SOL price on Aug 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Aug 25, 2026?
- Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down - Daily
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Artemis or Starship reach space first??
- Polymarket prices Artemis at 100% as of April 25, 2026.
- When does Will Artemis or Starship reach space first? resolve?
- Will Artemis or Starship reach space first? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2023.
- How is Will Artemis or Starship reach space first? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This is a market on which launch will be successfully completed first: NASA's Artemis or SpaceX's Starship.