Will September 2021 average global temperature be the highest September temperature on record?
WeatherPolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Current implied probabilityNo 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 122 days ago
StaleSep 8, 21, 12:00 AMOct 1, 21, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Rules
In Response to Trader Inquiry: At the time of this market’s inception, the record high for September was +0.95 °C above the 20th century average.
- This value will continue to be used as the benchmark for this market, i.e. if September 2021 reports a value of +0.95 °C or higher, the market will resolve to “Yes,” otherwise “No.” Retroactive modification of past values will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
- This is a market on whether the average global land and ocean surface temperature for September 2021 will be the highest September temperature since global records began in 1880.
- The resolution source for this market will be the Global Climate Report for September 2021, published by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2021).
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for the month of September 2021 averaged as a whole, global land and ocean surface temperature anomaly, as measured by U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, will be equal to or greater than 0.95°C (1.71°F) above the 20th century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F), and “No” otherwise.
