Current implied probability
Google 80%+1.5%Leader of 31 outcomes
Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$911.8
Liquidity
$16.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
79.0% / 80.0%
Spread
1.3%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jul 17, 26, 3:17 AMAug 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Google80%
Volume trend
$912Jul 175d of dataJul 21
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This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard.
- If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”).
- This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.