Current implied probability
The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift) 61.5%+1.0ptLeader of 7 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$432.9
Liquidity
$5.1K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 18, 26, 9:56 PM UTCSep 28, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos.
- The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Pop.
- If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Pop when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
- In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
- If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Open markets
Music
KALSHINew Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival 2027: Headliners
- Trombone Shorty & Orleans Avenue86%
- The Revivalists-9.0pt73%
- Jon Batiste-21.0pt51%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $61.9K
- 24h Vol
- $24.4K
KALSHIDrake: Highest daily view count in September 2026
- Above 13.5M+17.0pt99%
- Above 13.25M+2.0pt99%
- Above 11M99%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $110.5K
KALSHIBoston Calling Music Festival 2027: Headliners
- Noah Kahan35%
- The Strokes16%
- Kendrick Lamar15%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $78.3K
- 24h Vol
- $17.9K
KALSHIEd Sheeran Loop Tour · Number of Dates Cancelled
- At least 1 date cancelled-21.0pt59%
- At least 2 dates cancelled+7.0pt38%
- At least 3 dates cancelled-22.0pt22%
+14 more outcomes
KALSHIBad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 14, 2026 - September 20, 2026)
- Above 28M+33.0pt99%
- Above 22M99%
- Above 22.5M99%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $44.7K
KALSHIGrand Theft Auto VI: The Album · Features
- PinkPantheress+1.0pt99%
- Rauw Alejandro97%
- Dua Lipa70%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $51.8K
- 24h Vol
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- Morgan Wallen: Highest daily view count in September 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for VMA Best Pop 2026?
- Polymarket prices The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift) at 61% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does VMA Best Pop 2026 resolve?
- VMA Best Pop 2026 is scheduled to resolve on September 28, 2026.
- How is VMA Best Pop 2026 settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos.