How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 29, 2026?
1.0 pts (24h)WeatherOne-Off5d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 25, 2026, 3:49 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
0 states 50%+1.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.2
Low liquiditySpread
98.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 24, 26, 1:00 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Rules
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 29, 2026.
- Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+.
- Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
- The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii.
- The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
- Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Open markets
Weather
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 25, 2026?
- Seattle+3.0pt98%
- Providence+30.0pt95%
- Boston+2.0pt72%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $191.6K
- 24h Vol
- $181.3K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 25, 2026?
- 80° or below80.4%
- 81° to 82°11.2%
- 83° to 84°4.7%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $77.9K
- 24h Vol
- $75.4K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 25, 2026?
- 69° to 70°50%
- 71° to 72°30.4%
- 67° to 68°12.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $44.3K
- 24h Vol
- $43.9K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 25, 2026?
- 89° to 90°41.9%
- 87° to 88°34.3%
- 91° to 92°13.3%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $47.4K
- 24h Vol
- $42.2K
KALSHIHurricane Fay category?
- Category 1 or above-4.0pt10%
- Category 5 or above+7.0pt8%
- Category 2 or above-2.0pt5%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $52.3K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Madrid on September 26?
- 34°C-10.5pt45.9%
- 33°C+5.0pt36.7%
- 35°C-2.0pt11.2%
+8 more outcomes
- Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 25, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 26?
- Where will it rain on Sep 26, 2026?
- Where will it rain this weekend (Sep 26 - Sep 27)?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 25, 2026?
- Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 26?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 25, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 26?
- Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 26?
- What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 29, 2026??
- Polymarket prices 0 states at 50% as of September 25, 2026.
- When does How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 29, 2026? resolve?
- How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 29, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 29, 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 29, 2026.