This market resolved: Down (100%)
Resolved: Jul 1, 2026, 10:33 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Down
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
47%
SurpriseCurrent implied probabilityDown 100%+0.5pt
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$174.5K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
Market data
Updated 25 days ago
StaleJun 30, 26, 12:02 PMJul 1, 26, 8:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Up0%
Down100%
0%
100%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Down
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Kalshi
S&P 500 Daily Up/Down
Closed
Resolved
No (84%)
84%
16%
30 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$19.6K
24h Vol$16.6K
KALSHI
Also available on Limitless
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Up or Down - Daily
Closed
Resolved
No (60.9%)
60.9%
39.1%
15 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$281.5K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSRules
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, July 1, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
- This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, July 1, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
- E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
- If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.
- Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
- If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.2k87.0%POLYMARKETDownlittleceasers26d ago
POLYMARKETDownlittleceasers26d ago$1.0k26.0%POLYMARKETDown0x06b2…9f3527d ago
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This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, July 1, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
- This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, July 1, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
- E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
- If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50.
- Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
- If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.