PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 94%
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$7.7
Liquidity
$286
Low liquidityBid / Ask
4.9% / 7.7%
Spread
2.8 pt
Moderate spread7d Change
+2.2 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Nov 12, 25, 9:32 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes6%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall85% match · auto | Medium | 93% | +86pt | $21.6 | $31.6K | 8 minutes ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis page | Low | 94% | +87pt | $7.7 | $286 | 8 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?
1.0 pts5mo
93%
+1.0pt7%
65 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$77.9K
24h Vol$21.6
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla for any length of time between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
- This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla and/or Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$8Jul 1511d of dataJul 28
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla for any length of time between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
- This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla and/or Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.