PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Very Strong Typhoon
Resolved: Sep 1, 2026, 11:21 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Very Strong Typhoon 100%+0.4ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$244.9
Liquidity
$100.2K
High liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+1.9 pts
Market data
Updated 11 days ago
StaleAug 20, 26, 3:12 PM UTCSep 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Probability Timeline
Very Strong Typhoon100%
Severe Tropical Storm0%
Violent Typhoon0%
Typhoon0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that the named outcome Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
- Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: the named outcome (34-47 kt), the named outcome (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), the named outcome (85-104 kt), and the named outcome (105 kt or higher).
- These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve.
- The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
- Saudel is already a the named outcome, so its peak is at least "the named outcome".
- The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis.
