PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Below 1,028 44.5%-1.0ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$200
Liquidity
$6.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Aug 17, 26, 9:49 PM UTCApr 16, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
- See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.
- Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
- The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123.
- USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome.
- Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 23, 2026?
- 78° to 79°+28.0pt52.5%
- 80° to 81°39.4%
- 82° to 83°-21.0pt4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $365.5K
- 24h Vol
- $346.7K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 23, 2026?
- Philadelphia+83.0pt99%
- Miami+11.0pt99%
- Washington DC+10.0pt99%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $347.9K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 23, 2026?
- 82° to 83°+49.0pt52.4%
- 84° to 85°+21.0pt35.2%
- 86° to 87°-26.0pt9.5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 23, 2026?
- 67° to 68°+25.0pt76.2%
- 65° to 66°-8.0pt19.1%
- 69° to 70°-7.0pt1.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in Atlanta on Sep 23, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+23.0pt56.7%
- 82° to 83°+29.0pt38.1%
- 84° to 85°-1.0pt2.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in Chicago on Sep 23, 2026?
- 65° to 66°+27.0pt62.9%
- 67° to 68°-11.0pt17.1%
- 63° to 64°-1.0pt16.2%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Highest temperature in Dallas on September 24?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on September 24?
- Highest temperature in Seattle on Sep 24, 2026?
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- Highest temperature in Madrid on September 24?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 24?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 23, 2026?
- Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How low will Lake Mead drop??
- Polymarket prices Below 1,028 at 44.5% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does How low will Lake Mead drop? resolve?
- How low will Lake Mead drop? is scheduled to resolve on April 16, 2027.
- How is How low will Lake Mead drop? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.