Current implied probability
Messi 82%+3.0pt
Messi 82%+3.0ptMarket quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$152.1
Liquidity
$1.5K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
18.0% / 19.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-31.5 pts
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Sep 29, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026?
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LimitlessWill Lionel Messi be with Inter Miami at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Lionel Messi publicly claim Lamine Yamal is his son by end of Dec 31, 2026? (jokes count)
Manifold MarketsWill Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026?
LimitlessWill Lionel Messi score 950 goals before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Rodri" if Rodri finishes higher than Lionel Messi in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking.
- This market will resolve to "Messi" if Lionel Messi finishes higher than Rodri.
- The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026.
- If both players are given the same placement in the official ranking, this market will resolve to 50-50.
- If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the official placements of both players have not been published within this timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or ranking; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
