PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Kimi Antonelli 75.5%-0.3ptLeader of 22 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$180.9K
Liquidity
$13.8M
High liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
262
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleDec 9, 25, 12:55 AMDec 6, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.
- This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
- If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
- If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
- If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Kimi Antonelli is 74%. Quotes span about 1 percentage point between the widest venues. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference Kimi Antonelli 74% · 3 venues · 1 pt venue spread
- Also available on Gemini — Formula 1: 2026 Drivers' Champion · Franco Colapinto 77%
- Also available on Limitless — F1 Drivers' Champion · Kimi Antonelli 74%
- Also available on Kalshi — F1 Drivers Champion · Andrea Kimi Antonelli 64%
- Also available on Futuur — Formula 1 Drivers Champion · Kimi Antonelli 72%
Open markets
Motorsport
KALSHICook Out Southern 500 Winner
- Denny Hamlin15%
- Tyler Reddick14%
- Chase Briscoe11%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $225.9K
- 24h Vol
- $225.8K
KALSHIItalian Grand Prix Winner
- Lando Norris26.9%
- George Russell23.5%
- Charles Leclerc+1.0pt10.9%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $319.2K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETF1 Constructors' Champion
- Mercedes+2.0pt92%
- Ferrari-3.3pt7%
- McLaren-0.1pt1%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIFleetio 200 Winner
- Justin Allgaier25.5%
- Jesse Love10.2%
- Brandon Jones9.2%
+34 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $24.4K
- 24h Vol
- $24.4K
KALSHINASCAR Cup Series Champion
- Denny Hamlin+1.0pt40%
- Ryan Blaney-1.0pt13%
- Christopher Bell+5.0pt10%
+32 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIF1 Drivers Champion
- Andrea Kimi Antonelli+1.0pt63.8%
- Lando Norris7.8%
- Lewis Hamilton6.9%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.2M
- 24h Vol
- $13.1K
- NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500: Top 20 Finishers
- NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500: Top 10 Finishers
- F1 Constructors Champion
- NASCAR Fleetio 200: Top 10 Finishers
- Italian Grand Prix: Driver Winner
- Will it rain during the Italian Grand Prix?
- NASCAR Fleetio 200: Fastest Lap
- Cook Out Southern 500 Qualifying Session: Pole Position
- NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500: Top 5 Finishers
- Italian Grand Prix Main Race: Podium Finishers
- NASCAR Fleetio 200: Podium Finishers
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for F1 Drivers' Champion?
- Polymarket prices Kimi Antonelli at 76% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does F1 Drivers' Champion resolve?
- F1 Drivers' Champion is scheduled to resolve on December 6, 2026.
- How is F1 Drivers' Champion settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.
- Where else is F1 Drivers' Champion listed?
- The same question is also listed on Gemini, Limitless, Kalshi, Futuur.