Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 55.3%
Forecasters
40
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 13, 24, 11:17 PM UTCMar 1, 00, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill we discover alien life before 2034?
Manifold MarketsWill we discover alien life before 2035?
Manifold MarketsNear room-temperature Meissner effect in 2026?
KalshiWill we discover alien life before 2031?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves as YES if a superconductor at room temperature and ambient pressure has been discovered, synthesized and measured to be a superconductor before we discover strong evidence of past or present extra-terrestrial life
- Room temperature superconductors:
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-e940f30870be
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ebfceb8eefc5
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-f41118c07313
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-3ccf49dbe194
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we get room temperature superconductors before we discover alien life??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 55% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will we get room temperature superconductors before we discover alien life? resolve?
- Will we get room temperature superconductors before we discover alien life? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2100.
- How is Will we get room temperature superconductors before we discover alien life? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if a superconductor at room temperature and ambient pressure has been discovered, synthesized and measured to be a superconductor before we discover strong evidence of past or present extra-terrestrial life