Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (39.9%)
Resolved: Aug 8, 2026, 1:42 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastNo 60.1%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 days ago
StaleJul 14, 26, 12:50 PMAug 7, 26, 9:00 PM
Trends
60.1%
39.9%
Rules
Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).
- Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
- Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below.
- The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
- Resolves YES iff Spearman ρ ≥ 0.90 for eigenvector AND out-degree centrality, ρ < 0.85 for betweenness, AND ≥ 8 of the top-10 eigenvector states shared.
- (Compound = the registered "HOLD" criterion; betweenness reshuffling is part of the forecast.)
