Current community forecast
Yes 91.9%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleNov 28, 22, 8:52 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
People on Manifold and in related communities tend to have much shorter technology timelines than the mainstream.
- We debate whether general artificial intelligence is coming in 5 years or 50, while normal people are saying things like "will we ever get out of our solar system before the sun dies in 5 billion years? Eh, maybe." I've seen completely serious predictions that certain techologies are possible but will not be developed for thousands or even millions of years.
- If, after the year 2100, some significant new breakthrough is found, this market resolves to YES.
- If that hasn't happened by 2150, and scientists and inventors have arrived at a consensus that we've already discovered all the technology and there isn't anything new to invent, this resolves to NO.
- If they don't have such a consensus by 2150, this market remains open until they do.
- In order to count, the invention must actually be built; a blueprint and high confidence that it would work is not good enough.
