What are the current odds for Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)?

Manifold Markets prices No at 56% as of August 9, 2026.

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

MiningOne-Off

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Yes (43.7%)

Resolved: Aug 8, 2026, 1:42 PM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

No 56.3%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 12 days ago

Stale

Jul 14, 26, 1:07 PMAug 7, 26, 9:00 PM

Trends

56.3%

Yes

43.7%

Rules

Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below.
The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
Resolves YES iff Jaccard similarity of the backbone edge sets (top third of edges by value) ≥ 0.80.
Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

MiningOne-Off

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Yes (43.7%)

Resolved: Aug 8, 2026, 1:42 PM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

No 56.3%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 12 days ago

Stale

Jul 14, 26, 1:07 PMAug 7, 26, 9:00 PM

Trends

56.3%

Yes

43.7%

Rules

Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below.
The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
Resolves YES iff Jaccard similarity of the backbone edge sets (top third of edges by value) ≥ 0.80.
Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)?: Manifold Markets prices No at 56% as of August 9, 2026.
When does Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022) resolve?: Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022) is scheduled to resolve on August 7, 2026.
How is Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022) settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

Frequently asked questions

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