Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 55.3%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJun 9, 25, 5:25 PM UTCDec 31, 44, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Central banks around the world keep big “rainy-day” funds called foreign-exchange (FX) reserves.
- These reserves are mostly held in a few major currencies—like the U.S. dollar, the euro, etc—so a country can pay its international bills or stabilize its own currency.
- Every three months the International Monetary Fund (IMF) publishes a report, called COFER (Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves), that shows exactly what share of those global reserves sits in each currency.
- As of 2024, about 58% of the money in those reserves is in U.S. dollars.
- This question asks if the dollar’s share will ever fall below 50% before January 1, 2045 which will indicate the U.S. Dollar loosing its reserve currency status.
- Resolution Criteria:
