Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 84.1%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJun 25, 24, 12:04 PM UTCJan 2, 40, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How low will the Marathon World Record go before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will a bipedal robot break the human mile world record time?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will a bipedal robot break the human marathon world record time?
Manifold MarketsWho will break the 5/5 stranglehold on Super Mario 64 speedrunning and collect the world record bounty?
Manifold MarketsRules
Judged by https://www.speedrun.com/smb1
Open markets
Esports
POLYMARKETDota 2: Natus Vincere vs Klim Sani4 (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs
- Game 1 Winner+31.9pt100%
- Any Player Ultra Kill+70.0pt100%
- Both Teams Beat Roshan+61.0pt91%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $295.7K
- 24h Vol
- $295.7K
POLYMARKETLoL: Forsaken vs BOMBA Team (BO5) - Rift Legends Playoffs
- Game 3 Winner+51.0pt100%
- Game 4 Winner+50.0pt100%
- O/U 3.5 Games+42.5pt100%
+38 more outcomes
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
- 2 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-3.5) vs magic (+3.5)52%
- 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-3.5) vs magic (+3.5)50%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $171.7K
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: 9z vs MIBR (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- Match Winner57%
- 2 Winner56%
- 1 Winner52%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $140.1K
POLYMARKETLoL: White Dragons vs Dominion Goblins (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs
- Game 1 Winner+50.0pt100%
- Both Teams Slay a Dragon+35.0pt100%
- Match Winner+19.0pt95%
+34 more outcomes
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: Azuolas vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group A
- Handicap: G2.A (-1.5) vs Azuolas (+1.5)100%
- 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Ares (-3.5) vs Azuolas (+3.5)91%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Ares (-3.5) vs Azuolas (+3.5)91%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Alliance (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
- Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Team Novaq (BO3) - 1win Private Club #1: Closed Qualifier Playoffs
- LoL: Frites Esports Club vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs
- BOMBA Team vs. Forsaken
- LoL: VfB eSports vs CGN Esports (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Promotion Playoffs
- FISSURE Playground 3 Champion
- Team Novaq vs. WW Team
- Counter-Strike: 5star vs TheMongolz (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- LoL: Lenovo Legion Honvéd vs MAGAZA (BO5) - EBL Finals Playoffs
- Counter-Strike: Sabertooth vs The Golden Horde (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #9 Playoffs
- Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs GamerLegion (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the SMB1 Any% (NTSC) world record go to 4:54.265 or lower by January 1, 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the SMB1 Any% (NTSC) world record go to 4:54.265 or lower by January 1, 2040? resolve?
- Will the SMB1 Any% (NTSC) world record go to 4:54.265 or lower by January 1, 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2040.
- How is Will the SMB1 Any% (NTSC) world record go to 4:54.265 or lower by January 1, 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Judged by https://www.speedrun.com/smb1