Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBelow 1:59:30 28.8%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMay 16, 26, 5:54 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiVidantaWorld Mexico Open Winner
KalshiRules
The performance must meet the criteria to be ratified as a world record by World Athletics.
- Ratification can happen after the end of 2026 as long as the race itself was held before the end of 2026.
- This is a cumulative probability market, meaning all applicable answers will resolve YES, so e.g. if the WR stands at 1:59:15, both "the named outcome" and "the named outcome" will resolve YES.
