Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBelow 1:59:30 59.7%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMay 16, 26, 5:54 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
The performance must meet the criteria to be ratified as a world record by World Athletics.
- Ratification can happen after the end of 2026 as long as the race itself was held before the end of 2026.
- This is a cumulative probability market, meaning all applicable answers will resolve YES, so e.g. if the WR stands at 1:59:15, both "the named outcome" and "the named outcome" will resolve YES.
Open markets
SportsKALSHISabalenka vs Noskova
- Aryna Sabalenka+6.0pt74.5%
- Linda Noskova-5.0pt25.5%
- Total Vol
- $14.2M
- 24h Vol
- $13.1M
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2 Winner+33.0pt100%
- O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%
+29 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $27.9M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Total Vol
- $18.1K
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz57%
- Alexander Zverev+5.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28M
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIClub Brugge vs Aston Villa
- Aston Villa+49.0pt87.1%
- Tie-17.0pt9.9%
- Club Brugge-31.0pt3%
- Total Vol
- $2.5M
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF
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- United Arab Emirates vs Bangladesh
- 2027 Pro Football Champion
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- Real Madrid vs Inter
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How low will the Marathon World Record go before the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Below 1:59:30 at 60% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How low will the Marathon World Record go before the end of 2026? resolve?
- How low will the Marathon World Record go before the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is How low will the Marathon World Record go before the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The performance must meet the criteria to be ratified as a world record by World Athletics.