Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 88.8%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleMay 5, 25, 2:31 AM UTCDec 31, 49, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiIn what year will a bipedal robot break the human mile world record time?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves yes if the record is affirmed by World Athletics.
- If World Athletics goes defunct I will consider whatever the closest equivalent is.
- Update 2025-09-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The time must be faster than the current world record (as of now).
- If the current WR is later vacated and a slower time becomes the WR, breaking that later WR without beating the current record does not count.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- 102° to 103°+55.0pt95.2%
- 100° to 101°-47.0pt1%
- 98° to 99°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+47.0pt95.2%
- 90° to 91°-34.0pt1%
- 88° to 89°-6.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
- Yes96%
- No4%
- Total Vol
- $125.8K
- 24h Vol
- $125.8K
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 86 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 87 F on September 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 89 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 88 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the men's 100m world record be broken before 2050??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the men's 100m world record be broken before 2050? resolve?
- Will the men's 100m world record be broken before 2050? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2049.
- How is Will the men's 100m world record be broken before 2050? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes if the record is affirmed by World Athletics.