Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75.5%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleMay 1, 24, 9:23 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
The record for the world's biggest domino chain reaction has remained unbroken at 4,491,863 dominoes since 2009, when the annual TV show Domino Day saw its last edition to date (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7OzuXZ6U7s).
- Since then, there have sometimes been rumours of Domino Day returning, but none have come to pass.
- In the meantime, domino-builders who took up the hobby as kids, inspired by Domino Day, have formed their own professional events.
- The world record still looks unbreakable, as the biggest of those amateur events "only" reached 800,000 dominoes last year (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ql9-X3fKqvI), but it will be exciting to see if and when pushing for the record becomes conceivable.
- Will the world record make it 20 years unbroken? For this to resolve YES, the event where the record is broken must take place before 2030 (the date when the record is finally ratified doesn't matter).
- It must also be approved by Guinness World Records (or a similar organisation if GWR for some reasons doesn't exist anymore), and the rules for the record must not have undergone any drastic changes.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the domino-toppling world record be broken before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 76% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the domino-toppling world record be broken before 2030? resolve?
- Will the domino-toppling world record be broken before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will the domino-toppling world record be broken before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The record for the world's biggest domino chain reaction has remained unbroken at 4,491,863 dominoes since 2009, when the annual TV show Domino Day saw its last edition to date (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7OzuXZ6U7s).