What are the current odds for Will the Global Methane Pledge be met??

Manifold Markets prices No at 83.9% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Will the Global Methane Pledge be met? resolve?

Will the Global Methane Pledge be met? is scheduled to resolve on January 31, 2030.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 83.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Stale

Feb 3, 24, 9:50 AM UTCJan 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

The global methane pledge aims to keep 2030 methane anthropogenic emissions below 70% of 2020 emissions. https://www.globalmethanepledge.org/

Will it succeed?
Resolution will be by the first authoritative data source with single-year emissions data from all major anthropogenic sources, likely PRIMAP, which is used by OurWorldInData https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/methane-emissions