Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 78%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 3, 23, 4:55 AM UTCMar 2, 27, 12:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?
Manifold MarketsWill the first WSJ article about Manifold mention assassination markets?
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Manifold MarketsWill NYT write an article about a scandal at 80,000 Hours, before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Mentioning assassination markets does not need to involve the word "assassination", as long as there's a clear reference to the moral hazard and potential controversy.
- To count, the article must be substantially about Manifold Markets as a place for prediction markets.
- As in other contexts, I'll use "33% of the length is actually about Manifold" as a rough threshold, but I reserve the right to adjust if I decide that rule is inappropriate on a case-by-case basis.
- I'll not be betting in this market, of course.
Open markets
Exchange
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Atpmatch MUSO 26 Ftiaamic
- AMIC+38.0pt78.4%
- FTIA-37.0pt21.6%
- Total Vol
- $5.4M
- 24h Vol
- $5.4M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 9pm EDT?
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,100 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $658.7K
- 24h Vol
- $637.4K
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Atpmatch MUSO 26 Bshecalc
- CALC76.7%
- BSHE+1.0pt23.3%
- Total Vol
- $534.5K
- 24h Vol
- $534.5K
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Jessica Pegula vs Emma Navarro Quarter Finals match
- Jessica Pegula76.8%
- Emma Navarro23.1%
- Total Vol
- $143.6K
- 24h Vol
- $499.1K
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.5pt100%
- 74,000+0.7pt100%
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- How high will BTC get in September?
- Wtamatch WUSO 26 Mandcgau
- Wtamatch WUSO 26 Qzheeryb
- BNB price range on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
- What chain will LAPTOP launch on?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the first Reuters article about Manifold mention assassination markets??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the first Reuters article about Manifold mention assassination markets? resolve?
- Will the first Reuters article about Manifold mention assassination markets? is scheduled to resolve on March 2, 2027.
- How is Will the first Reuters article about Manifold mention assassination markets? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Mentioning assassination markets does not need to involve the word "assassination", as long as there's a clear reference to the moral hazard and potential controversy.