Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (99%)
Resolved: Jul 3, 2026, 2:17 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
68
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 days ago
StaleApr 5, 24, 6:20 AMJul 3, 26, 2:17 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No1%
99%
1%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall92% match · verified | Low | 95% | — | $241.1K | $834.2K | 20 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 99% | — | — | — | 19 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce: Married in 2026?
4.0 ptsClosed
Resolved
Yes (95%)
-4.0pt95%
5%
49 • Low qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.6M
24h Vol$241.1K
KALSHIRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.1k99.0%KALSHIYes21d ago
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MANIFOLD MARKETS
60 minutes: Joe Rogan joins as a Correspondent this year?
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KALSHI
Which celebrities will appear in mobile game advertisements this year?
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KALSHIActive in these topics
Rules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.