What are the current odds for Will Super Smash Bros. Melee have an AI scandal in a tournament before 2027??

Manifold Markets prices No at 89.2% as of October 23, 2026.

Will Super Smash Bros. Melee have an AI scandal in a tournament before 2027?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 8:46 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No 89.2%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Stale

Mar 12, 25, 7:47 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Context: there now exist Super Smash Bros.

Melee AIs that outperform top human players (e.g. Phillip).
Immediately resolves YES if, before 2027, it is determined that there was a tournament (with at least 20 unique entrants) in which a player who qualified for a monetary prize for their placement was using an AI agent to play at least some of their games.
In order for this to resolve YES, the AI must be discovered after the end of the offending player's tournament run; if they are discovered to be an AI and then disqualified as a result, it does not trigger a YES resolution.
Resolves NO otherwise.