Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.8%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleFeb 9, 26, 6:01 PM UTCFeb 9, 27, 6:01 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if South Africa's platinum group metals (PGM) production for the full year 2025 declines by more than 5% compared to 2024, as reported by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) in their official mining production release, typically published in early 2026.
- This threshold is significant due to South Africa's critical role in the global PGM supply chain, particularly affecting palladium and platinum markets.
- A decline of this magnitude could tighten global supply and impact prices.
- The data will be sourced from Stats SA's annual mining production report.
- Note that this market will consider the total PGM output, not individual metals within the group.
- Source: Article
