Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Oct 13, 2026, 8:08 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
No
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes4.7%
No95.3%
NoWon
YesLost
Rules
Silence was climbed by Adam Ondra in 2017, who proposed the grade 9c, the first person to propose that grade.
- By "confirmed" I mean one other climber completes the route and gives it the grade 9c.
- If the second climber gives it a grade different to 9c, market remains open (close date extending as necessary).
- If the grade ends up being really controversial I'll use my own judgment of the balance of opinion of relevant experts to decide if it is reasonable to say it has been "confirmed" 9c.
- (For example, if the second climber gives it 9b+ and the third climber gives it 9c, it's quite likely that I will consider that "confirmed 9c" but I'll try to find out what the consensus among climbers is.)
- If another climb is confirmed 9c first, or if a consensus is formed that Silence is not 9c (either higher or lower) this market resolves NO.
