Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 21, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 4.2%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleJan 17, 23, 12:55 AMJan 1, 39, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes4%
Volume trend
$213Jul 174d of dataJul 21
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Rules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.