Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.2%
Forecasters
52
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 59 minutes ago
LaggingAug 1, 23, 12:17 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?
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FutuurRules
Resolves YES if https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18169/date-for-room-temp-superconductivity/ resolves to a date before 2030.
- Copy of Metaculus's criteria:
- Resolution Criteria
- For positive resolution, a material must be developed or discovered that demonstrates reliable superconductivity at a temperature between -5° and 105° C and at a pressure between 0.8 and 1.2 standard atmosphere.
- One initial paper and a successful, credible replication appearing in a reputable peer-reviewed journal will suffice for positive resolution, and will resolve as the date of the publication of the replication paper.
- All type superconductors are eligible (e.g., Type-I, -II, -1.5).
