Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 87.3%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJan 12, 24, 12:44 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How much of the United State's energy will be produced by fossil fuels in 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill more than 5% of UK electricity be supplied by fossil fuels in 2030?
Manifold Markets2x2: Will Labour get majority, will fossil fuels (without imports) compose >33% of UK energy gen next Parliament?
Manifold MarketsHow many lead service lines will Michigan replace in 2026?
KalshiWill renewable energy sources generate more than 4,700 thousand megawatt-hours of electricity in California during December 2026?
ForecastExWill renewable energy sources generate more than 4,900 thousand megawatt-hours of electricity in California during December 2026?
ForecastExRules
I'm gonna be strict on "completely".
- My bar is going to be that no more oil is being drilled, and no more coal plants are in operation anywhere in the world.
- Internal combustion engines are fine as long as they're running on carbon-neutral fuel like biofuel.
- Nuclear will also count, since even though it technically isn't renewable, it definitely isn't a fossil fuel.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will renewable energy completely replace fossil fuels by 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will renewable energy completely replace fossil fuels by 2040? resolve?
- Will renewable energy completely replace fossil fuels by 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.
- How is Will renewable energy completely replace fossil fuels by 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I'm gonna be strict on "completely".