Manifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastspain 40.4%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Feb 28, 26, 8:19 PMJul 19, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
spain40%
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Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Spain, France, or Argentina wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
- The tournament takes place from June 11 to July 19, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by the official FIFA World Cup winner announced at the conclusion of the final match.
- The market resolves NO if any other team wins the tournament.
- Spain is the favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup with approximately 14.9% implied probability, followed by England at 13.2% and Argentina at 12.3%.