KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Spain (99%)
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, 10:09 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 19, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Settlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- Spain
- Recorded
- Jul 19, 2026, 10:32 PM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current implied probabilitySpain 94.3%+39.5ptLeader of 48 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$271.7M
Liquidity
$1B
High liquidityBid / Ask
1.0% / 1.5%
Spread
0.5 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 7 days ago
StaleMay 15, 25, 2:00 PMJul 18, 28, 2:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Netherlands5%
Portugal7%
Mexico3%
USA4%
Spain99%
Argentina2%
Norway6%
Belgium2%
1.9%
94.3%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Spain
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 99% | — | $271.7M | $1B | 7 days ago | |
 Polymarket100% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $25.7M | $0 | 6 days ago | Open → |
 Rothera93% match · auto | Low | 100% | — | $39.3M | $0 | 5 days ago | Open → |
 Limitless100% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $695.3 | $0 | 6 days ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets100% match · verified | — | 100% | — | — | — | 6 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets90% match · verified | — | 99% | — | — | — | 6 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets90% match · verified | — | 100% | — | — | — | 6 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets80% match · linked | — | 100% | — | — | — | 6 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets82% match · verified | — | 58% | — | — | — | 7 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
World Cup Winner
40.9 ptsClosed
Resolved
Spain (100%)
+40.9pt100%
-22.8pt0%
-39.0pt0%
+57 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$4.3B
24h Vol$25.7M
POLYMARKETAlso available on Manifold Markets
2026 FIFA World Cup ⚽ | 🏆 Winner
Closed
Resolved
Spain (99.9%)
+40.3pt99.9%
0%
0%
+47 more outcomes
Community forecast1,234 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Limitless
World Cup Winner
Closed
Resolved
Spain (99.7%)
99.8%
0.2%
22 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$40.2K
24h Vol$695.3
LIMITLESSAlso available on Rothera
World Cup 2026: Winner
Closed
Resolved
Spain (100%)
100%
0%
35 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$39.3M
24h Vol$39.3M
ROTHERAAlso available on Manifold Markets
Which country will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Closed
Resolved
Spain (99.3%)
+42.1pt99.3%
-0.2pt0.2%
-41.9pt0.1%
+38 more outcomes
Community forecast140 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Closed
Resolved
Spain (100%)
+40.9pt100%
0%
0%
+45 more outcomes
Community forecast141 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup?
Closed
Resolved
Spain (57.9%)
+42.4pt57.9%
-40.3pt40.1%
-0.4pt0.4%
+14 more outcomes
Community forecast62 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Which Team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Closed
Resolved
Spain (99.7%)
+0.9pt99.7%
0%
0%
+40 more outcomes
Community forecast199 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If France wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA.
- Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
- If Spain wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Brazil wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If England wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.7k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesKhighisgood7d ago
POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesKhighisgood7d ago$1.6k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesNegative-Guitar7d ago
POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesNegative-Guitar7d ago$2.7k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesJakethemuss7d ago
POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesJakethemuss7d ago$1.2k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesJittery-Professor7d ago
POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesJittery-Professor7d ago$5.0k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes0x5cff…4d937d ago
POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes0x5cff…4d937d ago$2.6k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesZeopro7d ago
POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YesZeopro7d ago$1.4k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yesflynn8887d ago
POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yesflynn8887d ago$24.6k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yespkkc7d ago
POLYMARKETWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yespkkc7d agoVolume trend
$271.7MJul 218d of dataJul 19
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If France wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA.
- Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
- If Spain wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Brazil wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If England wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.