Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (96.4%)
Resolved: Oct 1, 2026, 6:47 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 2, 2026, 6:23 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes96.4%
No3.5999999999999943%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsMuse: First Week Pure Album Sales
KalshiMuse: First Week Album Equivalent Units
KalshiMuse: First Week Streams
KalshiWill Apple VR App Store revenue surpass Meta Quest Store revenues in 4 years?
Manifold MarketsHow long will Sanae Takaichi be the prime minister of Japan? (She assumed office on October 21st, 2025.)
Manifold MarketsRules
It just reached #1 under free apps, will it stay this way? I will check at 10am PST, if muse is #1 on October 1st, resolves YES.