Current community forecast
Yes 96.5%
Forecasters
58
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 18, 26, 8:52 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Build a Bear file for bankruptcy, be bought, or otherwise cease operating before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Warp still be operating at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsThere are 9 active farm companies in the USA founded before 1820 on Wikipedia. Will all 9 still be operating EOY 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill Nectome still be operating in 2032?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRules
Context: https://manifold.markets/post/announcing-mnx-the-ai-exchange
- Resolves YES if full-functionality real-money trading is available on MNX for most of December 2026 PT and they do not intend to shut down before January 1, 2027.
- Resolves NO if these conditions are not fulfilled (including if real-money betting never went live).
- If MNX is renamed it still counts as MNX, but not if it's a substantially different project.
