Current community forecast
No 65.2%
Forecasters
63
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleFeb 1, 24, 11:25 AM UTCOct 13, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?
Manifold MarketsWill A Class Action Lawsuit Be Filed Against Manifold or ManiPlay By End Of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNext Prime Minister of Romania?
PolymarketWill chess be solved by 2040?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiFIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner
KalshiRules
I have a seperate question where you are able to add your own answers for possible moves for yourself, I will play as white and each move will be chosen by whichever answer has the highest probability, this market resolves when the chess game ends.
- NOTE: If the game is a draw I have not one so it resolves as NO, and If there are two of the same move then the one with the higher probability is chosen.
Open markets
SportsKALSHISekulic vs Matsuda
- Philip Sekulic58.2%
- Koki Matsuda+7.0pt41.8%
- Total Vol
- $5.3M
- 24h Vol
- $5.3M
KALSHIAmgen Irish Open Winner
- Joaquin Niemann+18.7pt19.5%
- Rory McIlroy11%
- Jon Rahm-1.4pt5.1%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.3M
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R-1.0pt14%
- Buffalo+1.0pt7.9%
- Seattle-1.0pt6.1%
+29 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $90.7M
KALSHITampa Bay vs Atlanta
- Atlanta-3.0pt50.5%
- Tampa Bay+2.0pt49.5%
- Total Vol
- $3M
- 24h Vol
- $3M
KALSHIFenerbahce vs Roma
- Roma-6.0pt40.4%
- Tie+9.0pt37.4%
- Fenerbahce-7.0pt22.2%
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHISan Francisco vs Los Angeles R
- Los Angeles R64.4%
- San Francisco35.6%
- Total Vol
- $3.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
- FC Bayern München vs. FK Bodø/Glimt
- Trevisan vs Maristany Zuleta de Reales
- Manchester United vs Sabah Masazir
- Amgen Irish Open End of Round 1 Leader
- Eindhoven vs Shakhtar
- Tampa Bay vs Atlanta: Total Runs
- Lagutin vs Alcala Gurri
- San Francisco vs Los Angeles: Spread
- UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Bayern Munich vs Bodoe/Glimt
- MVP Winner?
- US Open Men's Singles Winner
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll)?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 65% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll) resolve?
- Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll) is scheduled to resolve on October 13, 2026.
- How is Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I have a seperate question where you are able to add your own answers for possible moves for yourself, I will play as white and each move will be chosen by whichever answer has the highest probability, this market resolves when the chess game ends.