Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 57.2%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 17, 24, 11:57 PM UTCJan 1, 41, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2030?
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Manifold MarketsRules
As of 2023, Google Search has 91% market share in search engine, when the second most popular search engine only has 3% market share
- https://www.reliablesoft.net/top-10-search-engines-in-the-world/
- Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2040?
- Data source for resolution not determined yet.
- In 2040 myself or a mod will find a credible data source on users statistics of popular search engines and resolve this market base on that.
- If certain LLMs end up powering a major feature of a search engine, whereby users' inputs return a list of websites as output, these would also be considered a search engine as well.
Open markets
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+3 more outcomes
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- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
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+3 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2040? resolve?
- Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2041.
- How is Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As of 2023, Google Search has 91% market share in search engine, when the second most popular search engine only has 3% market share