Will Furnace Creek, Death Valley record a high temperature of at least 129.0°F by September 28, 2026 (9/28/26)?
WeatherDaily
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (90.8%)
Resolved: Oct 15, 2026, 5:08 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 23, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Trends
Won
Lost
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the official maximum daily temperature at Furnace Creek, Death Valley reaches or exceeds 129.0°F on any day between the market's creation and September 28, 2026.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- The primary source of truth is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) daily summaries for station GHCND:USC00042319 (Death Valley, CA), or official climatological reports/statements published by the National Weather Service (NWS) Las Vegas.
- Real-time observations from the DEVC1 weather station (accessible via the NWS Time Series Viewer) may be used for preliminary tracking.
- However, final resolution will be based on the official quality-controlled dataset from NCEI or final verification announcements from NWS Las Vegas.
