Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Aug 19, 2026, 3:00 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleAug 10, 26, 8:11 AMAug 19, 26, 3:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes1%
No99%
99%
1%
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Elon Musk's official X account (@elonmusk) reaches 243,000,000 (243 million) followers or more at any point before August 20, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Primary Source: Elon Musk's official X profile: x.com/elonmusk.
- Detailed Count Verification: If the UI on X displays a rounded number (e.g., "243M"), third-party analytics trackers such as Social Blade will be used to verify if the exact follower count has crossed the 243,000,000 threshold.
- Edge Cases: If he changes his handle, the market will track the new handle of his main personal account.
